ES and SD

Get or give advice on equipment, reloading and other technical issues.

Moderator: Mod

Message
Author
DaveMc
Posts: 1453
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:33 pm

Re: ES and SD

#31 Postby DaveMc » Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:40 am

OK, as promised this is a graph.

Image
These figures were calculated from JBM ballistics (online), Peter was doing a similar one with Litz's calculator but drop from 300-1000 (assuming perfect compensation at 300). The relationship is the same, just smaller figures (I will post a photo of that too soon)

Jason - There is no magical line in the sand here. The faster you go the better the relationship, but heavier bullets at same speed are also better off.

What does this mean????.

Well - I am not going to get involved in what can be pushed out of a 308 case and do not advocate high pressure loads in any means - nor am I trying to encourage people to push the limits but in the velocities I have seen (and under the Qld muzzle energy limit) there is a significant difference in the required velocity variation to hold vertical for the slower 308 bullets than the faster ones at the same energy level. This may part way explain why a few years ago Rod and Alan were having a lot of success with 168's in the 284 and also why Steve Lazarus was having such good elevation with his 155 FTR outfit than a lot of the heavier FTR loads in the recent NQRA Queens.

Also by no means am I telling everyone to shoot lightweight pills. There is always a compromise and that being extra wind drift. I post this to try and help explain a few of the things people are starting to notice when analysing the data. Also if you are talking about 1000 yard compensation then you need to have very significant movements for these loads. e.g. a 230 grain 308 bullet doing 2500 fps would need to drop a full minute on paper at short range over a 30 fps velocity rise - that in itself needs discussion - a) how would you generate it and b) how would you control it and c) what effect would it have on elevation at the shorter ranges. I will over next short period start a separate topic to discuss these issues.

AlanF
Posts: 7501
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 8:22 pm
Location: Maffra, Vic

Re: ES and SD

#32 Postby AlanF » Sun Jun 05, 2016 1:44 pm

Apologies Dave. Was just in the process of uploading your graph when your post appeared! Have replaced your photo with a pic of the graph you sent. I'll leave some time for the readers to discuss this, then post the latest version of the Excel simulator.

AlanF
Posts: 7501
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 8:22 pm
Location: Maffra, Vic

Re: ES and SD

#33 Postby AlanF » Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:24 pm

Regarding this effect of better tolerance to velocity spread at higher velocities, I've had a good look at it. First of all I doubted the ballistics program (which is based on Pejsa) but it checks out with the Berger one. It is apparently a real property of bullets in flight. It can be verified on any ballistics program that includes bullet drop as an output.

Here's some figures I calculated for Jason's 200 VLDs

Velocity 2600 fps gives 1000yd drop of 37.34MOA, increase this to 2640 fps, drop is 36.09MOA, difference in drop is 1.25MOA.
Velocity 2800 fps gives 1000yd drop of 31.67MOA, increase this to 2840 fps, drop is 30.69MOA, difference in drop is 1.02MOA.

So, the drop variation caused by unwanted velocity variation is clearly less at higher velocities. This would seem to be a general phenomena for any calibre and projectile.

I don't think its a game changer, but it does make lighter faster bullets more attractive, particularly in easier conditions where vertical accuracy is a major factor in determining outcomes. It goes some way to explain the success of the 6 Dasher I think.

RAVEN
Posts: 1978
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2005 9:37 pm
Location: Adelaide South Australia (CTV)

Re: ES and SD

#34 Postby RAVEN » Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:51 pm

Good info DMc & Alan
RB

jasmay
Posts: 1293
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:26 pm

Re: ES and SD

#35 Postby jasmay » Sun Jun 05, 2016 8:02 pm

Thanks Dave and Alan,'

This is actually something I had already figured through first hand experience on range, I had though there was something else to it.

Simply put a flatter trajectory will result in less deviation for a given velocity change.

What you may find interesting is most of us are finding flatter trajectories with heavier bullets, I guess we are at that transition point, in MVS. Retained energy plays a roll here too, at shorter ranges I would expect a lighter bullet to perform better, but there is a cross over point where the heavy takes over when we move back

I am actually 1/2moa lower with my elevation for a 200gr vs. my old 155 load. A similar story from a few other regulars I shoot with.

bsouthernau
Posts: 696
Joined: Sun Mar 11, 2012 4:31 pm

Re: ES and SD

#36 Postby bsouthernau » Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:26 am

jasmay wrote:... at shorter ranges I would expect a lighter bullet to perform better, but there is a cross over point where the heavy takes over when we move back


And the further back you go the more pronounced this becomes. It's well nigh impossible to launch a 155 from a .308 case fast enough to keep it supersonic at 1200 whereas you can do it quite comfortably with a 210.

jasmay
Posts: 1293
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:26 pm

Re: ES and SD

#37 Postby jasmay » Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:52 am

Alan, I think recoil management plays the biggest roll with the heavier pills and lighter rifle off a bipod.

I was actually noticing some vert recently, thinking it was my load, but I had changed position slightly which was effecting my recoil management.

Still waiting for Dave to start the compensation thread, but I would suspect, most heavy barrels we shoot these days having a more neutral profile, with this in mind I suspect recoil to become more critical.

Or maybe I am just talking about stuff I know nothing about and is all in my mind :-k

DenisA
Posts: 1526
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:00 pm
Location: Sunshine Coast, QLD

Re: ES and SD

#38 Postby DenisA » Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:20 pm

DenisA wrote:If you have a great load with low ES and SD and you have a tuner on the barrel, adjusting the tuner will change the group shape and size but will it change the ES and SD?


Sorry, I don't mean to sound like a broken record :oops: , but I'm really looking forward to and answer to this question if anyone has tested it.

AlanF
Posts: 7501
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 8:22 pm
Location: Maffra, Vic

Re: ES and SD

#39 Postby AlanF » Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:53 pm

DenisA wrote:
DenisA wrote:If you have a great load with low ES and SD and you have a tuner on the barrel, adjusting the tuner will change the group shape and size but will it change the ES and SD?


Sorry, I don't mean to sound like a broken record :oops: , but I'm really looking forward to and answer to this question if anyone has tested it.


I don't think it needs testing Denis. Tuning a barrel only affects the bullet perpendicular to its path, and even if a tuner constricts the bore it doesn't vary with the tuner. All the same, you can never be 100% sure about these things.

jasmay
Posts: 1293
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2012 9:26 pm

Re: ES and SD

#40 Postby jasmay » Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:53 pm

DenisA wrote:
DenisA wrote:If you have a great load with low ES and SD and you have a tuner on the barrel, adjusting the tuner will change the group shape and size but will it change the ES and SD?


Sorry, I don't mean to sound like a broken record :oops: , but I'm really looking forward to and answer to this question if anyone has tested it.


At a guess Denis (perhaps slightly educated), I would say no, internal ballistics (aside from powder temperature) would be the only thing that effects these figures I would have thought. I'll shutup and wait for the correction now :|

DenisA
Posts: 1526
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:00 pm
Location: Sunshine Coast, QLD

Re: ES and SD

#41 Postby DenisA » Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:43 pm

I realise that it seems like an obvious answer and silly question.

The reason that I ask is that the reason that ES/SD can change so heavily between slightly varying extremely consistently produced test loads is still unclear to me
So far it seems like we just know that it does vary heavily and is not predictable. Low ES/SD across groups doesn't seem to expand and shrink across a tested node the way grouping does and it doesn't stay low with all the careful preparation in the world.

I would have thought, and it makes sense that the ES/SD would stay the same if a tuner was adjusted on a known low ES/SD load but I wouldn't be surprised if someone said that it changes as there seems to be more to it.
If ES/SD doesn't change, then that should mean that using a barrel tuner and adjusting it as the barrel ages or environment changes should be a far better option than tweaking powder charge?

In that case an ultimate tune should be as easy as identifying your accurate node at the desired MV, finding the tightest ES/SD charge in that node and then adjusting the tuner to bring the centre of the node to the tightest ES/SD point? Induction anneal necks, neck turn brass, uniform P/P and F/H's, weight sort primers, bullets and cases to further reduce SD.

williada
Posts: 969
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2009 12:37 am

Re: ES and SD

#42 Postby williada » Tue Jun 07, 2016 6:12 pm

“If you eat All Bran you do not need All Bran”.

I am reluctant to continue making posts of this length and wish to pass the baton as it is very demanding at times to respond to all requests as much as I would like to help at the moment it is difficult.

In other words if the size of your sample is big enough, say over hundreds of shots it is more likely to form a normal distribution pattern to which you can expect future shots to follow. The minimum sample size of significance is 30. This pattern will be in its simplest form, shaped like a bell. If you plot the data of a normal distribution, the shape is symmetrical. It will show dispersion of shots or data, either side of the centre of pattern to be the same. That’s why the arithmetic mean (as we commonly refer to the average on your chronograph) will be in the middle of the bell shape as well as the mode which is the most common result; and the median which is the halfway point in your data, say the mid-point in your extreme spread.

In such as case the SD (standard deviation) will be representative. So loads based on a big sample size will work as predicted.

To answer Denis, the SD’s and ES’s might be higher than you think without big sample testing of your reloading practices even though they may represent a normal distribution. Small sample values might look great one day and terrible another when really they are not reflecting the value from a bigger sample. Sometimes people are mislead by SD’s which are higher or low by chronographs which still spit out SD’s on 3 shots or a few more yet their groups are ok and become confused because of this.

The second best method to improve your diagnosis is to accumulate many small samples as indicators and trends if overlayed in successive tests to display a trend like in your charge test if you do not do large samples. Then you can effectively increase your sample size if you know what to look for. This saves wearing out your barrel. Keeping records of shoots does this too, but how many F class shooters write things down? Three shot groups mean very little unless they are representative of a bigger sample size such as working your variable tuner based on a previously known tight tune. Nodal groups represent harmony of just so many vibrations. If they are round, you would expect the SD figures to hold for that tune condition.

But again patterns you may see as nodal may be a result of variable velocities that have reflected vibrations and overtones influencing them that balance out or maybe stack up as a standing wave to form a small group.

Because there are just so many variables to contend with, we have to look at the magnitude of effect each one has, and then secondly their interaction. This means we have to demonstrate the extremes of effects to understand concepts e.g. Positive compensation compared to negative compensation. Once we get the concept we then refine it to pass analytical judgement. This means we look at the macro effect, then the micro effects, then interactions. Some things cancel each other out, some things cumulate and add to the effect, some things are in harmony and other things are not quite, due to different frequencies and overtones and reflected frequencies. It is very complex for the uninitiated to get their head around. It takes many shots to say confidently this will happen.

The macro concept of barrel lift and fundamental vibration is used at a basic level to explain tune concepts of a nodal tune and compensation. We know this is affected by barrel profile, stiffness and velocity in determining the amplitude and the frequency of the fundamental sine wave and exit timing as Alan says in the vertical. So it’s not surprising the charge weight has the biggest impact on vertical followed by seating depth and neck tension.

The fundamental lift is not as great in thicker barrels which induce higher frequencies as used in FClass. A further consequence of slower burning powders the frequencies of many inputs, are lower in amplitude and shorter in length. They tend to have choppy waves. All it means is the extremes of lift are reduced and more attention to lesser frequencies must be paid in order to tighten groups further. The frequencies still exhibit the strengths and weaknesses of the macro scale. Barrels might appear to be a neutral profile, but in reality exhibit slight positive compensation. I would call that barrel a neutral/positive, or vice versa a neutral/negative. So we get a range of finer tunes and nodal points to select from indicated trends. We have to start somewhere.

In order to examine the micro scale we have to bear in mind the sine wave is a two dimensional concept of forces applied in a barrel we see on the target with 2 degrees of freedom, vertically and horizontally. That’s why I use actual group analysis to see what indicated tune best suits the in terms of its personality. It’s a case of reverse engineering with experience and pointing the tongue the right way I have gained over the years - never too old to learn though and have an open mind as to how improvements can be made.

If I was a miner and had a core from a diamond drill to inspect, we would slice it up the middle, end to end, to get a visual idea of what the core held. A barrel has a helix or twist of rifling end to end; and if we section that too like a core we can see the vertical pattern of the rifling in the same way we visualise a sine wave to get a good idea of what is going on.

If people care to look at simulations on Varmint Al’s site, you will see barrel’s doing all sorts of things. Suffice it to say, that the barrel can move in all directions in reality with two degrees of freedom. So the sine wave application has to be qualified. The patterns we see on the target in both vertical and horizontal represent different frequencies interacting.

If we get a nice round group, to keep the discussion simple, then two frequencies one horizontal and one vertical are acting 1 to 1 on a group and we get a harmonious pattern.

If we get a vertical frequencies two times greater than the horizontal frequencies we can get an elliptical pattern.

The combination of frequencies can produce many patterns such as the ABC logo. All of these patterns are stable. They do the same thing if velocities remain the same. Which one you pick depends on what you want from your group size.

One further advance in tuning is to recognise the vibrations not only go up and down and sideways but a shockwave donut travels up and down the barrel about 7 times as some say, before the bullet exits while the barrel is subject to fundamental to lift and sideways movement. The bullet hits all these hurdles of transverse, vertical, reflected and overtones of the mix. The bullet is retarded by theses pulses and this will influence the SD of its velocity.

Now I come to the bit that has Denis scratching his head. The Optimum Charge Weight practitioners feel the crown is distorted by unfortunate mixes of frequencies. We all know what a bad crown does or if the muzzle is loose. So they tune in an area where groups are tightest with least vibration excitement and that does not necessarily represent a node where frequencies are in harmony and velocity dependent. They get insurance having the lowest SD they can possibly have.

To achieve the smallest group is also to take into account the third inertia force on the barrel when the bullet exits. The vibrations speed up as the nose exits and change a little more as its body and tail emerge. These vibrations have less amplitude and have greater frequency. It’s like looking at the wiring element of an old light bulb. It’s like visualising the flatspots on a chrono incremental load test where there is a long lift up before the next flat spot. If you look carefully at that flatspot, it has small wiggles like the top of a light bulb element. The chatter from it can be dampened by a tuner or you can add a false muzzle to take the chatter away from the crown but that should be based on harmonic length or it could influence a micro launch angle. In any case when you know you are around a good tune area the movements have to be small.

Larger weights have already been considered for damping properties, heat sinking ability to stabilize velocity and launch angle. If anything is not broke and your groups are sound, no need to fix them.

To sum up Denis, anything that prevents flow is impedance. Any variation in the impedance will affect your velocity SD. If there are more wiggles there is more impedance. By how much? Depends on the size of your anti-wiggler. Look at the target to see if it is significant. Over time you may have a large sample size to prove it. The OCW method implies there is least impedance when the barrel is in its straightest position on bullet exit. That implies a low angular tune. They look for an area of least barrel excitement in the fine tune. I have found the patterns to represent a neutral tune. I do not think it is superior to a nodal tune on a neutral barrel. But it does seem to perform well with environmental changes as it tends to embody velocity changes in its structure because you look for tunes on a similar elevation either side of it. I think compensation tunes can supplement these tunes as insurance but always like low SD’s included in my load preparation as separate from knowing the extreme spread range the compensation tune copes with preparing for a specific distance like 1000 yards because a compensation tune is distance specific and not for across the course unless it is slight IMO.

If you believe in weighing your primers, then you would think it wise to check chatter too because that is impedance. If you had a loose fanbelt with an alternator that had suspect bearings, would you run with a loose fanbelt or a tight one? Could you measure the change on the motor which is the main driver like lift in the change of its RPM?

The modelling of the trajectories has its limitations but they are an important tool. The point I make is that the barrel muzzle goes in many directions large and small and they both affect the accuracy of the group. Beware of ballistic models where SD analysis to see what potential group size could be assumes a fixed launch angle. We know in reality this is not so. What we can do with a green barrel is get the best out of it by examining its personality with indicators.

A way to improve the confidence of the test indicators I advocate maybe have many people pool their test tunes at short range with long range performance.
David

plumbs7
Posts: 1124
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:32 am
Location: Dalby/ Tara Rifle Club

Re: ES and SD

#43 Postby plumbs7 » Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:44 pm

Thanks David , wow ! Like I said I've learnt so much off you especially about barrel harmonics! It's a bit tough as usual to get my head around ! Really appreciate it ! Regards Graham.

DenisA
Posts: 1526
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:00 pm
Location: Sunshine Coast, QLD

Re: ES and SD

#44 Postby DenisA » Tue Jun 07, 2016 7:47 pm

PM sent.

Thank you David for all of your in depth advise. The time that you devote to this forum and the information that you share is priceless.

We are very lucky to have you here.

I completely understand that you have limitations and I really am sorry to have helped find them.

Thank You.

DaveMc
Posts: 1453
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:33 pm

Re: ES and SD

#45 Postby DaveMc » Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:23 pm

Thanks David - that is a very good post - in many parts but I would like to draw further attention to the following couple of phrases.

"In other words if the size of your sample is big enough, say over hundreds of shots it is more likely to form a normal distribution pattern to which you can expect future shots to follow. The minimum sample size of significance is 30. This pattern will be in its simplest form, shaped like a bell. If you plot the data of a normal distribution, the shape is symmetrical. It will show dispersion of shots or data, either side of the centre of pattern to be the same. That’s why the arithmetic mean (as we commonly refer to the average on your chronograph) will be in the middle of the bell shape as well as the mode which is the most common result; and the median which is the halfway point in your data, say the mid-point in your extreme spread."

In such as case the SD (standard deviation) will be representative. So loads based on a big sample size will work as predicted.

Spot on and I think this is one of the hardest things for most to get their head around so I will devote a bit to this before we get on to talking about other aspects. I often find it challenging to discuss this concept with the shooting world as we all shoot 3,5 and 10 shot groups and try and draw meaningful conclusions. We really have to unless you have an unlimited barrel and time budget. In order to demonstrate this I have done another basic model which I will post and start a new thread. - The more sampling we do the more we are convinced most groups follow a normal distribution. Sometimes they are skewed, have longer tails etc but by far the majority can be described wll with a normal distribution model and thus SD's mean something from larger samples. - A favourite saying for us up here is "thats great - now repeat it!"

To answer Denis, the SD’s and ES’s might be higher than you think without big sample testing of your reloading practices even though they may represent a normal distribution. Small sample values might look great one day and terrible another when really they are not reflecting the value from a bigger sample. Sometimes people are mislead by SD’s which are higher or low by chronographs which still spit out SD’s on 3 shots or a few more yet their groups are ok and become confused because of this.

As above - and hopefully this will become clear as we work through the next thread.


Return to “Equipment & Technical”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 74 guests